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Energy Market Analysis – 05-03-2013 5th March, 2013  

Production at the Nyhamna processing plant was down yesterday after a failure in the Norwegian national power grid – which led to overall Norwegian output falling by a considerable 64 mm cm compared to Friday’s level.

As a result of this, flows to the UK were 34 mm cm lower – so we saw a tighter system and a surge in NBP within-day prices; which reached record levels.

Today, Norwegian output is a little lower than yesterday – which confirms the Gassco announcement that the outage won’t ease until Tuesday.

Turning to European power, yesterday’s German OTC spot prices fell after a rise in solar output and the decline in consumption on the back of warmer weather. Meanwhile, French OTC prices remained fairly stable – which could be down to a renewed plant outage at a nuclear power station along with a rise in clean gas costs.

How did the energy markets close?

We saw more difficulties for gas flows yesterday, as Langeled fell a further 35mcm. The drop is thought to be down to a power cut at a gas plant along with poor weather in the North Sea.

As a result of this, the lack of supply led to the prompt moving up and WD trading higher than the 110ppt mark.

Power’s Day-Ahead saw more movement, closing above £65.00/MWh. What’s more, the System Buy Price peaked at £206/MWh as a 500MW nuclear reactor was taken offline and isn’t expected to restart until next week.

How did the energy markets open?

Prompt gas dropped back a little this morning after the system opened long. At the same time, Day-Ahead gas dropped almost 4.00ppt.

Elsewhere on the curve, the highest gains were seen on the Front month; which opening trading up 0.55ppt.

Following yesterday’s gains, power’s Day-Ahead dropped £11.25/MWh – returning to levels seen on Friday. Further out on the curve, prices seemed to firm – with April13 rising £0.45/MWh and S13 gaining £0.40/MWh.

1-year forward prices

Market close data revealed a slight rise in the 1-year forward prices of business gas and business electricity – which are now trading at 69.28ppt and £52.90/MWh respectively.

Latest Brent Crude Oil prices

Brent Crude recovered slightly to open at $110.8/bbl this morning.

Today’s focus turns to PMIs in services in the Eurozone and in the US (ISM) – but these shouldn’t have huge effects. Look out for API inventory data that is due for release this evening.

05 03 2013 300x218 Energy Market Analysis – 05 03 2013

Energy Prices 05-03-2013

Note: Brent Crude prices are taken from opening market data, and do not represent the price as it changes throughout the day.

About The Author

Nick Boyle

Nick Boyle

Nick is responsible for marketing for Apollo Energy. He also manages and moderates the blog. Connect with Nick on Google+ here.