Energy Market Analysis – 08-03-2013 8th March, 2013 Nick Boyle
UK NTS gas demand was supported by higher storage injections yesterday, which helped the increase of NBP spot and near curve prices this morning. Today’s UK supply/demand should stay pretty much the same, with lower current demand allowing for more storage injections. These injections could quash worries about low storage levels, which could help April 2013 prices weaken a little.
Temperatures are expected to fall into next week, but not as much as initially thought. This could well be the reason why Week-Ahead prices are lower today.
We’re not expecting many market drivers today, so power prices are likely to be traded rather neutral ahead of the weekend.
How did the energy markets close?
Day-Ahead gas closed up 0.75ppt from its opening level. Elsewhere, though, curve contracts didn’t take a clear direction; with April13 and S13 both falling 0.15ppt and 0.05ppt respectively.
Power’s Day-Ahead managed to gain £1.00/MWh during trading yesterday – again following its gas counterpart. An expected restart of a nuclear reactor at Heysham failed to create much of a stir, while April13 closed at £52.50/MWh – its highest level since December.
How did the energy markets open?
Today’s market opening saw a continuation of flat storage levels – equating to 7% of the overall gas supply mix. Despite colder weather expected over the coming weeks, the front curve saw prices fall.
In terms of power, Day-Ahead almost cancelled out the gains it made yesterday – opening up at £52.00/MWh. At the same time, the rest of the curve experienced mixed sentiment; with Front-Month dropping and Q213 rising.
1-year forward prices
Based on last night’s market close data, there has been a slight rise in the 1-year forward prices of business gas and business electricity. These are now trading at 69.33ppt and £52.98/MWh respectively.
Latest Brent Crude Oil prices
Yesterday was a day of little change for Brent prices, as a North Sea pipeline network opened up after 5 days of being closed.
This morning, Brent 1st-nearby prices have pushed above the $111/bbl mark after opening slightly lower.
Note: Brent Crude prices are taken from opening market data, and do not represent the price as it changes throughout the day.