Energy Market Analysis – 10-07-2013 10th July, 2013 Daniel Birkett
Spot prices dropped yesterday as a result of improved wind generation even though solar production is expected to decrease slightly today. Wind generation is expected to return to normal levels as the week goes on which could lead to spot prices going up but steady solar production has been forecast.
How did the energy markets close?
Linepack was short for most of yesterday’s session which led to Day-Ahead adding 0.60ppt to its price. The GBP fell against the Euro which helped prices move up but the UK is expected to see some financial growth which will see the pound strengthen. The Front-Month contracts saw upward movement which ranged between 0.05ppt and 0.10ppt and seasonal contracts also saw minor changes.
Day-Ahead power went up slightly as a number of coal-fired plants have undergone maintenance in the last few days. Further along the curve September-13 went up by £0.10/MWh, Winter-13 fell by £0.05/MWh as Far-Curve contracts saw mixed but minimal movement.
How did the energy markets open?
The Rough storage facility is currently offline which will limit the amount of gas injections to the system and LNG flows currently stand at 24mcm. The system opened 5mcm long and Day-Ahead fell by 0.40ppt as a result however the rest of the curve registered gains with Winter-13 going up by 0.15ppt.
The majority of the power curve made losses today except Day-Ahead which climbed £0.50/MWh. Coal-fired generation increased its share of the fuel mix with a number of plants expected to come back online today, although there was a drop wind generation.
1-year forward prices
Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for commercial gas made a loss while commercial electricity went up slightly – closing at 68.60ppt and £52.03/MWh, respectively. This can be seen in the graph below.
Note: Brent Crude prices are taken from opening market data, and do not represent the price as it changes throughout the day.
Latest Brent Crude Oil prices
Oil prices saw another increase despite concerns in Egypt mellowing somewhat following the appointment of a new Prime Minister. Weak Chinese data was one of the main drivers in the increase as Brent 1st-nearby prices hit $108/b this morning.