Energy Market Analysis – 13-03-2013 13th March, 2013 Nick Boyle
The gas market saw the key NBP DA contract trade 7.00ppt higher yesterday; closing at 95.50ppt – a 13-month high. The market was waiting for news of milder weather, which would give storage players the opportunity to inject… but the forecast indicated this wasn’t going to happen.
NBP remained bullish throughout the session, amid news of high demand and supply constraints related to the outage at Rough storage facility.
We’re seeing, as you can expect, higher electricity consumption because of the cold weather. This is offering strong support to Day-Ahead power prices.
1-year forward prices
Another small rise was registered for the 1-year forward prices of business gas and business electricity, with both of these trading at 69.93ppt and £53.33 respectively.
Latest Brent Crude Oil prices
Yesterday was another day of falling Brent Crude prices – with Brent/WTI spread shrinking and Brent timespreads weakening.
Yesterday’s monthly OPEC report revealed that OPEC is maintaining the forecast for oil demand growth at 840 kb/d for 2013 with downside risks. EIA’s report revealed a cut in its oil demand growth forecasts – falling to 1.01 MB/d.
With the EIA lowering its demand forecast, downward pressure forced prices to $109.30/bbl. Prices have recovered a little today, but the weekly DEA report (published today) could trigger some volatility in the market.
Today’s focus turns to EZ industrial production and US retail sales. The IEA monthly report will also make an interesting read. EIA’s weekly report is due out this afternoon, which will be discussed tomorrow.