Energy Market Analysis – 18-04-2013 18th April, 2013 Daniel Birkett
Spot prices saw a considerable drop yesterday with nuclear availability in France around 1GW higher and German wind generation will be in excess of 10GW day-on-day. Hydro production in France is also high and could continue to look healthy as the snow melts.
How did the energy markets close?
Day-Ahead gas fell by 0.65ppt and Front-Month saw a loss of 0.80ppt as the improved weather temperatures had an effect on prompt prices. Gas flows via the South Hook and St-Fergus terminals were improved and the falling Brent-Prices also had an impact on gas prices.
Power prices remained bearish across the curve due to the vote against back-loading and the downward trend of Front-Month Brent. Day-Ahead and July-13 showed no change but the seasonal contracts saw drops of over £0.45/MWh.
How did the energy markets open?
Day-Ahead gas was at its lowest point in two months while most of the other contracts saw no change, Winter-15 dropped by the biggest margin falling by 0.40ppt. The LNG outlook remains positive as four more deliveries are expected to arrive in late April but the Brent demand growth outlook doesn’t look good as prices continue to fall.
Day-Ahead power saw a rise of £2.10/MWh and opened at £49.25/MWh even though wind generation is expected to increase. Front-Month shed £0.30/MWh and followed a similar trend to Front-Month Brent. The Hunterson power station will have reduced output until Sunday which has resulted in lower nuclear availability in the generation mix.
1-year forward prices
Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for commercial gas made a small rise and commercial electricity dropped once again – closing at 68.22ppt and £52.34 respectively. This can be seen in the graph below.
Note: Brent Crude prices are taken from opening market data, and do not represent the price as it changes throughout the day.
Latest Brent Crude Oil prices
Brent prices remained bearish showing a drop of 2.22 $/b and hit a low of 96.75 $/b in the morning, the price currently sits at 98.0 $/b.