Energy Market Analysis – 19-02-2013 19th February, 2013 Nick Boyle
Despite yesterday’s higher-than-anticipated levels of demand, a strong supply from both Norway and the continent resulted in a comfortable UK gas system. This help to drive NBP spot and near curve prices lower; with NBP ICE March 2013 falling to 65.980ppt at the close.
UK NTS demand is expected to be slightly lower than yesterday, which means UK fundamentals should remain pretty much the same. Following two sessions of decline, a technical rebound can’t be ruled out for today’s session.
Power’s spot prices could still be on the upside over the next few days, which can be attributed to lower temperatures and higher levels of consumption. Higher renewable energy production in Germany, however, could limit the higher prices.
How did the energy markets close?
Yesterday saw a dip in gas prices, on the back of economic concerns in the EuroZone and an oversupplied market – with Day-Ahead closing down at 67.2ppt. Further out on the curve, we saw W-14 and S-15 move up around 0.3ppt, which could be down to Brent’s surge as geopolitical tensions rise.
Day-Ahead power stayed strong at £51.10/MWh, following the path of its gas counterpart. Meanwhile, far-curve power prices made up some ground at the same time as near-curve gas prices dropping value.
Elsewhere, carbon allowances were trading a little higher during the session, but fell back before market close.
How did the energy markets open?
An overnight rise of 0.4ppt meant Day-Ahead gas opened today’s trading at 67.6ppt – which could be down to this morning’s freezing temperatures and a drop in flows from St Fergus Total.
Far-curve power contracts bucked this trend by opening lower, but could bounce back after Ofgem’s chief executive said that falls in Britain’s power production capacity could be down to increased energy imports and may lead to customers paying more for their energy.
In terms of number, Day-Ahead power opened trading at £50.70/MWh on the back of an increase in gas-fired generation and a reduction in imports.
1-year forward prices
Following yesterday’s market close, the 1-year forward prices for business gas and electricity both saw a slight increase – trading at 67.28ppt and £51.80 respectively. This rise can be seen in the graph below.
Latest Brent Crude Oil prices
Brent 1st-nearby prices fell to $116.92/bbl during yesterday’s session, before rebounding and closing the day’s trading at $117.38.
This morning, Brent Crude started trading at $118/bbl, but fell off a little when reports revealed Saudi oil exports are at their highest level since 2005; which makes up for losses from Libya and Iran. This indicates that the market is sufficiently supplied.
Note: Brent Crude prices are taken from opening market data, and do not represent the price as it changes throughout the day.