Apollo Energy publish a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets, including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on what is currently affecting the market and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The report also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas & electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
Healthy supply levels weighed on near-curve gas prices yesterday despite another rise in demand levels, while contracts further along the curve tracked the movement of weakening Brent. Norwegian flows continued to improve which offset a 10mcm rise in demand and led to an oversupplied system. The Day-Ahead contract was one of the few contracts not to display a loss and was influenced by the cold weather forecast.
Gas prices moved down yesterday despite higher demand levels as another drop in Brent resulted in losses across the curve. Demand levels rose from 288mcm to 306mcm but LNG send-outs remained strong and Norwegian flows improved following the end of maintenance at St Fergus. However, a weaker Pound offered some support further along the curve.
The St Fergus terminal remained offline yesterday which limited flows into the UK, while demand levels also increased due to colder temperatures; this resulted in a gain for the prompt which filtered through to the rest of the near-curve. Further out, the sentiment was more bearish as contracts were influenced by weaker oil.
Gas prices moved down on Friday as mild weather over the weekend reduced demand levels, with consumption falling to 6% below the seasonal average in the UK. However, an unplanned outage in Norway led to a halt in Langeled flows in the afternoon which restricted some of the downward movement on the near-curve. Further out, most contracts followed the movement of the weakening oil market.
Gas prices inched lower yesterday as demand levels fell, supply remained healthy and Brent weakened. The UK gas system was long throughout the session as Norwegian imports increased and LNG send-outs were strong. A further drop in demand was also forecast for today which further weighed on the prompt.