Apollo Energy publish a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets, including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on what is currently affecting the market and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The report also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas & electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
The UK gas system was oversupplied on Friday with demand levels 10% below the seasonal norm which helped near-curve gas contracts to decrease in price. Temperatures were expected to remain above average for the rest of November which also provided bearish pressure. Meanwhile, the outage at the Kvitebjorn gas field in Norway was resolved which led to an increase in flows via the Langeled pipeline.
Gas prices displayed mixed movement during Thursday’s session as a milder weather outlook for the next few days was offset by weaker Norwegian supply and lower Dutch imports. The drop in flows via the Langeled and BBL pipelines resulted in an undersupplied system at the start of the session, supporting the prompt.
Gas prices inched higher yesterday despite a healthy supply/ demand outlook in the UK and a long gas system. An unplanned outage in Norway may have offered some support to near-curve prices but the main market driver was on-going political tensions, as Gazprom cut imports into Ukraine due to lack of payment.
Gas prices displayed mixed movement during Tuesday’s session as demand levels decreased on the back of milder temperatures and Norwegian flows improved. However, concerns regarding the situation between Russian and Turkey have caused some market uncertainty. Ukraine also missed a pre-payment for future gas imports from Russia and supply into the country is set to be halted as a result.
Gas prices climbed higher yesterday following two unplanned outages in Norway, with further upward pressure coming from strong consumption levels. The outages in Norway are expected to take up to two days to resolve but a milder weather forecast should reduce demand levels, restricting the gains on some contracts.