Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
Norwegian supply was reduced further yesterday which supported contracts on the near-curve, while rising oil continued to push far-curve prices higher. Gas demand is also expected to increase across Europe due to colder temperatures which provided further bullish pressure, as did another drop in the Pound.
Movement on the gas curve was largely bullish on Tuesday, erasing the strong losses displayed on the prompt in the previous session. Norwegian imports into the UK fell by 25mcm which offered support to the near-curve, with a colder weather forecast for next week also a factor. Further out, contracts continued to be pushed higher by rising Brent and a weaker Pound.
Gas contracts initially opened higher on Monday on the back of weak LNG send-outs and a colder weather forecast for next week. However, a sharp rise in Norwegian imports via the Langeled pipeline in the afternoon resulted in an oversupplied system and erased some of the morningâ€™s gains. The downward movement further along the curve was slightly restricted by a drop in the Pound and rising oil prices.
Gas prices displayed a slight decrease on Friday afternoon as a result of an expected rise in Norwegian flows this week following the end of seasonal maintenance. Temperatures were also forecast to be rather mild during October which could weigh on demand levels. Further out, a downward correction in oil prices provided additional bearish pressure for some contracts.
Gas prices posted gains on Thursday ahead of the expiration of a number of contracts, with strong upward movement on the commodity market also a key factor. Oil prices increased on the back of Wednesdayâ€™s announcement in regards to production cuts which supported the far-curve. A weaker supply picture also provided bullish pressure at the front of the curve following another drop in Norwegian flows, while a weaker wind forecast will result in higher gas-fired power generation.