Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
Prompt gas prices moved higher on Friday afternoon as Norwegian supply levels decreased, with weaker demand levels doing little to restrict the gains. Norwegian imports via the Langeled pipeline fell to 12mcm, while flows at the St Fergus terminal halted, resulting in a short gas system. Further along the curve the majority of contracts moved down as oil prices decreased.
Rising Brent supported contracts further along the curve yesterday, although a comfortable supply/ demand outlook for the coming week helped to limit upward movement on prompt prices. Outages at Norwegian facilities limited imports into the UK which fuelled the bullish sentiment but the changes were minimal after strong gains in the morning.
Gas contracts recorded losses at the start of Wednesdayâ€™s session on the back of a warm weather outlook and comfortable supply. However, a surge in oil prices in the afternoon resulted in strong gains across the curve, erasing the morningâ€™s losses and ignoring a comfortable supply outlook.
A decrease in UK gas demand and a drop in oil prices contributed to losses across the gas curve on Tuesday, with the downward movement more visible on the near-curve. Demand levels fell by 40mcm compared to Friday as milder weather led to lower residential consumption, with levels expected to fall further later in the week. Meanwhile, an outage at the Rough storage facility limited storage injections, with excess flows exported to Belgium; restricting some of the losses.
There was very little trading yesterday due to the Bank Holiday in the UK, with only 3 contracts trading on the Dutch TTF (Title Transfer Facility) market, compared to 80 on Friday. The movement on these contracts was bearish with a milder weather forecast for May and falling oil prices weighing on the market. Gas demand in the UK was 21% lower than Friday, while imports from Norway remained comfortable.