Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
A mild weather outlook for this week helped to restrict bullish movement at the front of the gas curve yesterday, with improved wind levels also helping to reduce gas-fired generation. Meanwhile, an increase in Norwegian flows to Europe contributed to a long gas system, resulting in higher exports via the IUK pipeline to Belgium. Upward movement further along the curve was limited by a bullish oil market, although a stronger Pound restricted any gains.
Gas prices displayed mixed movement yesterday, with prices at the front of the curve moving down on the back of a mild weather forecast, while contracts on the far-curve displayed small increases; bullish pressure was provided by gains on the oil and coal markets.
Gas prices moved down on Friday as mild weather was forecast today and wind levels were also expected to ramp up, reducing the need for CCGT generation. The UK gas system was oversupplied as UKCS production and Norwegian flows increased, although a weaker Pound limited some of the losses on the far-curve.
Norwegian flows were impacted by unplanned outages yesterday, while the return of the Rough storage facility has been delayed further, pushing gas contracts higher. The UK gas system was short on the back of this drop in supply, while a rise in coal prices supported contracts further along the curve.
Unplanned outages in Norway offered support to the near gas curve yesterday despite weaker demand levels as a result of milder weather. Norwegian exports to Europe fell to 320mcm during the session compared to an average of 349mcm last week. Movement was minimal on the far-curve with little support provided by the oil market.