Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
A mild weather forecast and a bearish oil market resulted in downward movement on the gas curve yesterday afternoon. Brent initially opened at its highest level since November but fell throughout the session, with the downward sentiment transferring to the gas market. Elsewhere, the supply picture was slightly weaker than previous sessions which helped to restrict some of the losses.
Near-curve gas prices displayed mixed movement yesterday, as a lower demand forecast weighed on some contracts, while a drop in Norwegian flows and weaker Dutch production supported others. The milder weather outlook for the coming days and healthy stocks should help to pressure down the front of the curve this week but rising Brent continued to lift contracts further out.
Gas prices moved down on Friday despite strong demand as temperatures for the second half of March were forecast to be mild, while supply levels also remained healthy. Higher imports from Norway and Holland resulted in a long gas UK system although an unplanned outage at the Rough storage facility limited some of the losses on the near-curve. Downward movement was also visible on the far-curve despite rising Brent, as contracts were influenced by the weaker demand outlook.
Day-Ahead gas displayed an increase yesterday afternoon following an outage at the Rough storage facility which tightened the UK gas system. However, the overall supply picture remained comfortable which helped the rest of the near-curve display losses. Downward movement further along the curve was slightly restricted by stronger Brent.
The Pound strengthened against the Euro yesterday which helped to weigh on near-curve gas contracts. Fundamentals were generally unchanged with colder weather resulting in high demand, restricting the downward movement somewhat. Elsewhere, Brent stabilised during the session and movement further along the curve was minimal as a result.