Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
The UK gas system fell short on Thursday following a significant drop in Norwegian flows due to an outage at the Vesterled pipeline, this resulted in bullish movement across the near gas curve. Further out, the rising oil market continued to act as the main market driver and most contracts moved higher.
UK supply levels fell by 10mcm yesterday, while demand also increased, tightening the system and resulting in bullish movement on the curve. Exports to Belgium were also high and an outage at a Norwegian facility was extended by a day. Meanwhile, a bullish oil market provided upward pressure on the far-curve.
LNG send-outs were strong on Tuesday due to an expected delivery from Qatar, while the restart of flows via the BBL pipeline resulted in comfortable systems in the UK and in other European nations. This improved supply picture led to losses across the near-curve, although a rise in Brent helped to limit the downward movement further out.
Unplanned outages helped to support the prompt and contracts across the near-curve on Monday, with maintenance at the St Fergus pipeline restricting supply levels in the UK. Further out, the sentiment turned bearish in the afternoon as a result of the drop in oil prices.
Near-curve gas prices increased on Friday with support coming from maintenance at the St Fergus pipeline which limited supply. Meanwhile, upward movement on the far-curve was less prominent with the gains restricted by a drop in Brent.