Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
Gas prices inched higher on Friday with support provided by stronger coal and oil markets, as overall fundamentals were little changed. Supply levels were comfortable which capped gains at the front of the curve, although maintenance is scheduled in Norway this week which will provide bullish sentiment.
Gas prices stabilised yesterday as movement on the oil market calmed, providing little direction to the curve. The supply/ demand picture was almost unchanged but a healthier renewable outlook should reduce CCGT demand over the next few days, weighing on the near-curve.
The latest EIA report resulted in weaker oil prices yesterday afternoon which transferred to the gas curve, with a significant drop in coal prices also a contributing factor. The prompt erased its morning gains and ended the session almost unchanged, with an expected rise in supply via Bacton SEAL helping to weigh on the near-curve.
Gas prices increased yesterday, reaching levels that were 5p higher than the average price last winter, with bullish pressure provided by rising coal and oil markets. However, upward movement at the front of the curve was offset by a cooler weather forecast and an expected rise in supply from the Bacton SEAL terminal.
Gas contracts added to their price on Monday following a sharp rise in coal prices, in addition to a bullish oil market. Sanctions on Iran and a drop in Saudi oil production helped to lift oil prices, while coal was supported by Chinese demand. The short term supply/ demand outlook was little changed from last week and gas prices instead found direction from fuel markets.