Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
Near-curve gas prices increased on Thursday with direction coming from a colder weather outlook for the end of the month and the start of April. Storage levels are also low which has provided additional support, while LNG supply is limited by outages in Africa. Meanwhile, an issue in Norway has reduced flows to the UK today, supporting the prompt, but bullish movement at the back of the curve was capped by weaker fuel markets.
A healthy supply outlook for today helped to weigh on the prompt during Wednesday’s session, although the rest of the near-curve found support from an expected drop in temperatures towards the end of the month and the start of April. Further out, prices initially opened higher but moved down later in the session following a sharp drop in oil prices.
Gas prices displayed mixed movement yesterday with upward movement on the prompt limited by weaker demand and a comfortable system. However, below average temperatures are forecast for April, pushing the front-month higher, while the far-curve was supported by bullish coal and oil markets.
Above average temperatures are expected later in the week which will weigh on demand levels, contributing to losses on the near-curve yesterday. The system was also long as demand decreased and pipeline supply improved. Movement further along the curve was generally stable, with support provided by rising coal and oil markets.
Gas prices decreased on Friday ahead of a milder weather outlook for this week. Most contracts erased some of the gains caused by unseasonably high demand and supply tightness, with the National Grid withdrawing its gas deficit warning. Contracts further along the curve, stabilised in the afternoon as a rebound in coal offset the effects of weaker Brent.