Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
A drop in oil prices helped to weigh on gas contracts on Tuesday, with falling APi2 coal also a factor. However, the Pound continued to weaken against the Euro which helped to limit some of the downward movement. In terms of supply, Norwegian flows were slightly down on the previous session and exports to Belgium hit a 9-month high, however, healthy LNG send-outs resulted in a long UK gas system.
Gas contracts continued on an upward trend as fundamentals were generally unchanged from Friday, with oil and currency markets holding firm; an increase in APi2 coal prices also lent support to the gas curve. Elsewhere, LNG supply remained strong with an expected flurry of deliveries expected to arrive in the UK over the next fortnight.
Gas contracts moved higher by the end of Fridayâ€™s session with a drop in production levels in Holland providing support, in addition to a rise in coal and oil prices. Overall fundamentals were largely unchanged, with higher exports to Belgium being offset by increased LNG send-outs and a rise in Norwegian flows. Numerous LNG deliveries are expected to arrive at South Hook from Qatar in the coming weeks which led to the jump in send-outs.
Gas prices moved down on Thursday on the back of weakening oil prices, with a stable supply outlook also limiting any upward movement. Norwegian imports into the UK fell and exports to Belgium increased following the end of maintenance at the UK interconnector, tightening European gas systems. This drop in supply was offset by a healthy LNG outlook, with 5 deliveries expected to arrive in the UK over the next fortnight.
Maintenance at Norwegian gas facilities reduced imports into the UK and the rest of Europe yesterday which provided support to near-curve contracts. A rise in exports to Belgium via the UK interconnector also increased demand and supported the bulls. Further out, prices were dictated by rising oil contracts and recorded gains.