Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
The system was tighter yesterday due to unplanned outages which continue to limit Norwegian flows to the UK. The LNG outlook is also weak which resulted in an increase in storage withdrawals. As a result of these supply constraints, prices across the near curve moved higher, while bullish oil prices supported the back of the curve.
Gas prices opened lower on Wednesday but unplanned outages continued to restrict flows into the UK and helped contracts on the near-curve recover as the session progressed. Issues at the North Morecambe, Kvitebjorn and Kristin fields, in addition to reduced output at the Bacton Seal terminal combined to limit supply levels. However, demand levels were below the seasonal norm and fuel markets stabilised, providing resistance to the bulls.
Gas prices displayed mixed movement yesterday with coal and oil markets moving in opposite directions in the afternoon. Following a bullish opening, a warmer weather outlook and an oversupplied system helped towards losses in the afternoon, with a rise in Norwegian flows also a factor.
The gas curve remained bullish on Monday with rising oil prices and tighter supply levels providing support. Langeled flows decreased in the afternoon due to three unplanned outages, resulting in an undersupplied system. Cooler weather is also expected towards the end of the week which will lift demand.
Gas prices were bullish on Friday with an expected rise in gas demand supporting contracts at the front of the curve and stronger coal helping towards increases further out. APi2 coal climbed higher on the back of a supply shortage in South Africa and import restrictions in China.