Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
Tighter supply levels in the UK resulted in higher spot contracts on Thursday, with rising coal supporting prices further out. Maintenance at the Vesterled and Forties pipelines impacted Norwegian & UKCS supply, however, the outage at Kollsnes was resolved.
An expected rise in Russian flows to Europe helped to pressure down the market in the morning, but the on-going outage at Kollsnes erased losses on the near-curve as the session progressed; production capacity at the facility was down by 50mcm/ day. A rebound in oil prices also supported the far-curve but this was slightly offset by weakening coal.
A rise in Norwegian output and a stronger outlook for Russian gas transit through the Nordstream pipeline weighed on European markets yesterday. Centrica also announced that 870mcm of gas will be produced at the Rough storage site between Q4-17 & Q1-18, further contributing to the losses. Meanwhile, coal and oil contracts shed from their price and helped towards bearish sentiment on the far-curve.
Day-Ahead gas climbed higher on Monday as a result of unplanned outages which impacted UKCS production and Norwegian imports. However, movement along the rest of the curve was minimal despite stronger coal prices, with resistance coming from an expected rise in Russian flows into Europe.