Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
An unplanned outage in Norway is expected to limit capacity until October, resulting in a rise in gas prices yesterday (read more here). Above average temperatures weighed on demand levels but this current warm spell is expected to be short-lived. Further out, prices continued to move higher with direction coming from rising Brent.
A sharp drop in demand helped near-curve prices move down yesterday, with above average temperatures expected to continue over the next few days. However, an extension to the outage at Kollsnes limited any bearish movement, while oil prices rebounded following the release of the EIA report, offering support to prices at the back of the curve.
Gas prices moved down yesterday as warmer weather is expected for the rest of the week and improved wind power led to a decrease in CCGT demand. The system was slightly long despite weaker LNG send-outs and a number of outages in Europe. Further out, prices displayed minor losses as fuel markets were largely stable.
The prompt decreased slightly due to a healthy renewable power forecast, while an expected rise in temperatures from Wednesday onward provided resistance to the bulls on the near-curve. However, the system opened short due to unplanned outages which capped any losses. The back of the curve displayed minor changes as oil and coal markets became more stable.