Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
10th April 2018 | Market Analysis
Bulls came back to the fore on Monday despite an upwards revision in temperature forecasts pointing to warm weather next week. A tight UK Gas system due to step up in gas demand from CCGTs on the back of very low wind power generation combined with two unplanned outages in Norway.
Milder weather helped to weigh on near-curve gas prices on Friday, with healthy LNG send-outs contributing to a slightly oversupplied system. Temperatures could rise to 5°C above the seasonal norm in some parts of Europe, resulting in comfortable systems. Meanwhile, coal and oil remained bullish, restricting downward movement at the back of the curve.
Residential demand was predicted to fall today, with improved renewable generation also reducing the need for gas-fired power. However, the system was short throughout the session due to stronger demand and weaker flows via the Langeled pipeline. An upward revision in the short term weather forecast kept any gains to a minimum, while far-curve prices were almost unchanged at the close of the session.
An expected drop in temperatures last night and a colder weather forecast for next week provided support to the prompt and near-curve gas prices yesterday. Further out, contracts moved down later in the session as coal and oil markets turned bearish.
Improved temperatures and healthy supply levels helped to weigh on prices across the near gas curve yesterday. Norwegian supply was comfortable and LNG send-outs remained strong with 4 deliveries scheduled to arrive this month. Further out, contracts moved higher later in the session as the coal market continued to strengthen due to potential supply disruptions in Australia.