Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
Temperatures are expected to remain around the seasonal norm until the end of the week, with some uncertainty in regards to how severe next week’s cold weather will be; resulting in some volatility at the front of the curve yesterday. Further out, a strong rebound in Brent and bullish coal contributed to upward movement.
Below average temperatures are expected from next week until the end of February, fuelling bullish movement across the near gas curve yesterday. An outage at the Entry Segal pipeline also provided support as Norwegian exports will be restricted for the next 4-6 days. Meanwhile, strengthening coal markets pushed contracts at the back of the curve higher.
Gas prices increased yesterday despite milder temperatures and improved wind generation which reduced demand. Bullish sentiment was provided by a cold weather outlook for next week and an outage at the Troll processing facility which will impact Norwegian flows into the UK. Meanwhile, a rise in coal prices helped to lift the far-curve, ignoring a weakening oil market.
Cold weather and an outage at the Forties pipeline meant the system was slightly short on Friday, offering support to prices at the front of the curve. An improved weather outlook for this week helped to provide some bearish resistance, while contracts on the far-curve stabilised due to weakening oil prices.