Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
The warm weather ended with the bank holiday weekend and the cooler outlook for this week offered support to near-curve gas contracts in the morning. Flows via the Langeled pipeline improved but the system was slightly short, while a rise in coal and oil provided bullish pressure at the back of the curve.
Gas prices inched higher on Friday due to supply constraints which resulted in a short system. However, the prompt shed from its price as demand levels were set to fall over the weekend thanks to warm weather. Further out, prices inched higher with support coming from rising fuel markets and a weak Pound.
Following a bearish open, gas prices increased due to a rebound on fuel markets. The system was slightly short but contracts were pressured down in the morning by a warm weather outlook for the weekend. However, weak LNG send-outs and some supply constraints caused by outages in Norway, limited the losses.
Gas prices displayed further losses yesterday with direction coming from a warmer weather outlook and bearish movement on coal and oil markets. Demand levels are expected to fall below 200mcm over the weekend but some upward pressure was provided by unplanned outages which reduced flows into the UK.
Gas prices initially opened at a premium yesterday but decreased as the session progressed. Warmer temperatures are now expected as we close in on the weekend which will result in lower demand, allowing storage injections to take place. Planned maintenance in Norway and an unexpected outage at St Fergus provided resistance, while LNG deliveries will be sparse over the coming weeks.