Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
Improved Norwegian supply helped gas contracts move down yesterday afternoon, erasing some of the morning’s gains. Strong wind generation reduced CCGT demand but colder temperatures lifted residential consumption. Further out, bearish movement was limited by a jump in oil prices and stronger coal.
Residential demand in the UK is expected to rise this week due to colder weather, offering support to the front of the curve yesterday. LNG supply also remained tight and bullish movement on the coal market continued to help far-curve contracts move higher. Meanwhile on the continent, Russian flows were down due a planned shutdown of the Nordstream pipeline.
The supply/ demand picture was mixed on Friday with strong wind levels reducing the need for CCGT power and colder weather lifting residential demand. Movement at the front of the curve was minimal, while stronger fuel markets lifting far-curve contracts.
The gas system was long yesterday which helped to restrict upward movement at the front of the curve. Strong wind levels were also expected to reduce gas-fired power generation today, although colder weather is set to lift residential demand. The rest of the curve was pushed higher by rising fuel, with carbon and emissions contracts both increasing in price.