Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
Gas prices moved down across the curve on Thursday as the system remained long thanks to healthy UKCS production which more than offset a slight rise in demand. Temperatures are also set to turn warmer over the weekend and the start of next week and the overall supply outlook is comfortable.
Gas prices inched higher during yesterday’s session with bullish pressure provided by increases on the oil market and a cooler weather outlook. Residential demand was higher than the previous session and Norwegian supply was weaker due to an outage, meanwhile, rising coal continued to offer support on the far-curve.
Near-curve gas contracts increased on Tuesday on the back of stronger oil prices and an unplanned outage in Norway which restricted imports to the UK. The system was undersupplied throughout the session but drop in coal prices helped to weigh on far-curve contracts in the afternoon.
Demand levels are expected to be slightly higher this week which helped to push near-curve gas contracts higher on Monday. Meanwhile, coal prices strengthened due to a drop in Australian production as a result of Cyclone Debbie, offering support further along the curve. In terms of supply, the UK gas system was balanced with exports to Belgium reaching their highest level since September 2016.
Gas prices moved down on Friday following bullish movement in the previous three sessions, ahead of the expiry of some near-curve contracts. Prices took direction from warmer temperatures which weighed on demand levels over the weekend and today, while the supply outlook was also improved.