Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
A cold start is forecast for May and a number of outages caused supply constraints, resulting in gains across the near-curve yesterday. However, below average demand levels resulted in an oversupplied system, limiting the upward movement. Further out, another rally in oil prices helped contracts climb higher, despite a drop in APi2 coal.
Unplanned outages in Norway continued to provide upward pressure on the near-curve yesterday, although below average demand levels limited the gains. Meanwhile, LNG send-outs were weak with deliveries to Europe expected to be infrequent in the short-term. Contracts at the back of the curve also moved higher, taking direction from rising coal and oil markets.
Unplanned outages in Norway helped gas contracts move higher on Thursday, with the upward trajectory continuing on Friday morning. A cooler weather outlook also offered support to the curve due to an expected rise in LDZ demand. Meanwhile, stable-to-bullish fuel markets continued to restrict any losses at the back of the curve.
An unplanned outage in Norway is expected to limit capacity until October, resulting in a rise in gas prices yesterday (read more here). Above average temperatures weighed on demand levels but this current warm spell is expected to be short-lived. Further out, prices continued to move higher with direction coming from rising Brent.