Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
Day-Ahead gas climbed higher yesterday as an expected drop in wind levels today will result in an increase in gas-fired power generation. The gains filtered through to the rest of the near-curve as the system moved closer to balance due to weaker Norwegian flows and low LNG send-outs. Meanwhile, Far-curve prices moved down as oil prices displayed strong losses and coal was stable.
Strong wind generation and mild weather reduced gas demand yesterday, with a similar forecast for the next few days, helping to weigh on near-curve contracts. Russian imports into Europe also improved, while LNG supply was comfortable. Meanwhile, oil prices increased in the afternoon and the coal market stabilised, although upward movement on the gas curve was minimal.
Gas contracts were pushed higher by a rise in coal prices yesterday afternoon, with gas-fired power generation looking a more favourable source over the summer months, while nuclear availability remains low. The UK gas system was long, which led to losses at the start of the session, with further bearish resistance provided by a stronger Pound and a falling oil market.
The majority of gas contracts recorded a loss on Friday with improved supply weighing on the front of the curve. Temperatures were expected to remain above average over the weekend, while Norwegian flows increased and contributed to a long system. Far-curve prices were pressured down by a falling oil market as the US backed out of the Paris Agreement.