Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
Gas prices decreased yesterday following strong gains in previous sessions, with a milder weather forecast for next week the main market driver. Two unplanned outages in Norway continued to restrict imports but this failed to offer much support to the curve. A drop in exports via the IUK pipeline provided further bearish pressure, while coal prices also fell.
Gas prices increased on Monday due to this weekâ€™s cold weather forecast and a rise in APi2 coal. Consumption levels remained well above average with low wind levels resulting in higher CCGT generation and cold temperatures lifting heating demand; further support was also offered by a weak LNG outlook and limited stocks.
A cold weather forecast for this week helped to support gas contracts on Friday, with rising coal also a contributing factor. The Day-Ahead contract was pushed higher by strong demand, with weak wind levels and lower nuclear availability in France resulting in an increased reliance on CCGT power generation; storage levels across Europe were also limited.
Gas prices moved higher on Thursday as cold weather resulted in strong demand, while an unplanned outage saw withdrawals drop to zero at the Rough storage facility; contributing to upward movement on the near-curve. Meanwhile, weaker coal and oil, combined with a stronger Pound helped to cap the gains further out.
A cold weather outlook for the next few days helped to support gas contracts at the start of yesterdayâ€™s session but these gains were restricted by falling oil prices. Gas demand rose to a four-year high in numerous countries across Europe and weakening coal had little impact as a result.