Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
A drop in Norwegian exports and weaker LNG send-outs tightened the UK gas system yesterday, resulting in early morning gains on the near-curve. However, these gains were erased as the session progressed as demand levels are set to remain low today and over the weekend. Far-curve prices showed minimal movement with coal and oil markets largely unchanged.
Downward movement on the oil market transferred to gas prices on Wednesday, with Brent briefly dropping below the $50/b mark. Coal prices also moved down and applied further bearish pressure on the far-curve. Meanwhile, Norwegian flows increased and contributed to significant oversupply in the UK, resulting in losses at the front of the curve.
Gas prices moved higher on Tuesday with support coming from rising coal and power markets, with an expected drop in temperatures next week also a factor. Meanwhile, Langeled flows were lower due to an unplanned outage at the Nyhamna processing plant which led to a tighter UK gas system, despite weak demand.
UK markets were closed yesterday due to the bank holiday but the majority of contracts ended Friday’s session at a discount. Warm weather over the weekend helped to reduce demand levels as expected, while the outlook for oil was bearish following the OPEC meeting. In terms of supply, exports via the IUK pipeline were very strong, helping to weigh on European prices.