Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
Day-Ahead gas climbed higher on Monday as a result of unplanned outages which impacted UKCS production and Norwegian imports. However, movement along the rest of the curve was minimal despite stronger coal prices, with resistance coming from an expected rise in Russian flows into Europe.
Gas prices displayed mixed changes on Friday with a weaker outlook for Norwegian supply into the UK helping near-curve contracts climb higher; further support was also provided by a weakening Pound. Prices initially opened lower but a change in fundamentals helped most contracts erase the morning’s losses as coal and oil continued to strengthen.
Ofgem are conducting a “significant code review” on electricity settlement reform and will assess the benefits of making half-hourly settlement (HHS) mandatory for small-scale domestic and non-domestic consumers.
Improved supply levels from Norway, combined with weaker demand helped to weigh on gas contracts on the near-curve yesterday. A rise in wind levels contributed to lower demand as gas-fired generation dropped. However, rising oil prices continued to support far-curve contracts.
Stronger oil prices supported the gas curve yesterday, with restricted Norwegian flows also contributing to gains on the near-curve. The outage at Kollsnes was extended until the 1st of October and imports to the UK will be limited via the Langeled pipeline. The system was short throughout the session on the back of this drop in supply, with weaker LNG send outs also playing a part.