Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
Gas prices moved down yesterday afternoon despite a bullish opening to the session, with a milder weather forecast for next week helping to weigh on the prompt; wind power was also set to rise which will reduce the UKâ€™s reliance on more expensive CCGT generation. Meanwhile, the UK gas system was well-supplied throughout the session and the Pound strengthened against the Euro.
Gas contracts moved higher on Tuesday as demand levels are set to increase over the coming days due to an expected cold snap in the UK. Rising oil prices were also a bullish factor, although an expected increase in wind power should reduce CCGT generation, limiting some of the upward movement on the prompt.
Mild temperatures have been forecast for the second half of November, helping to weigh on near-curve contracts, while the back of the curve was pressured down by falling coal and oil markets. The UK gas system remained oversupplied and an expected rise in wind levels should reduce CCGT generation this week.
Gas prices decreased on Friday on the back of weakening coal and oil contracts, as well as strengthening financial markets. However, a delay in restarts at French nuclear power plants restricted some of the downward movement at the front of the curve. In terms of short term supply, the UK gas system remained long throughout the session despite low LNG send-outs.
Gains could be observed across the gas curve yesterday with direction coming from a stronger oil market, as the impact of the US presidential election was short-lived. Cold temperatures were also a supportive factor for near-curve contracts, despite a long gas system.