Apollo Energy publishes a daily energy market analysis, focusing on the gas, power and oil markets including a commentary on how the markets close and open. Our analysis provides insight on how the markets are performing and also considers various factors which could dictate price changes in the future.
The analysis also contains a graph which tracks the one-year forward price of both gas and electricity as well as changes to Brent crude oil.
Last weekâ€™s statement released by OPEC has fuelled strong bullish movement on the oil market in recent sessions, with crude oil prices displaying their biggest weekly gains since April. OPEC confirmed that talks will be held next month in regards to taking action to stabilise the oil market, with some belief that a freeze on oil output could still materialise, helping Brent climb above $47/b.
The UK gas system was long throughout yesterdayâ€™s session which helped to weigh on near-curve gas prices. The Day-Ahead contract fell to its lowest price in 10 weeks as strong wind generation reduced the nationâ€™s need for gas-fired power generation. Further out, an increase in Brent in the afternoon helped to support some contracts with the help of a weakening Pound Sterling.
Gas contracts inched higher yesterday as a drop in Norwegian flows resulted in a short UK gas system, however gains on the far-curve were slightly restricted by weakening oil contracts. A warmer weather forecast for next week and a scheduled LNG delivery later in the month also helped to hold off the bulls.
Gas prices moved down yesterday as supply levels improved and temperatures are expected to increase at the weekend and over the course of next week. Cooler temperatures in the last week or so resulted in an increase in residential demand which should soften in the coming days, resulting in bearish movement on the near-curve. Meanwhile, flows via the St Fergus terminal increased by 10mcm and UKCS output should remain stable until Sunday at least.
Gas prices decreased on Monday despite on-going maintenance at facilities which led to a decrease in flows in the UK. However, the overall supply/ demand outlook was rather comfortable which helped near-curve contracts move down, although losses further out were restricted by rising Brent.