15th February 2018 | Posted by: Daniel Birkett | Market Analysis

Gas Power
Market Close Market Close
Temperatures are expected to remain around the seasonal norm until the end of the week, with some uncertainty in regards to how severe next week’s cold weather will be; resulting in some volatility at the front of the curve yesterday. Further out, a strong rebound in Brent and bullish coal contributed to upward movement. Weather forecasts continued to be the main factor behind price movements yesterday, with healthy wind levels and a milder weather outlook for today helping to restrict upward movement on the prompt. The rest of the curve was generally bullish, with a drop in temperatures expected next week, while a jump in oil prices provided bullish sentiment at the back of the curve.
Market Open Market Open
The system has opened long this morning and mild weather is forecast for tomorrow, weighing on the prompt. High renewable generation has reduced CCGT demand, while LDZ demand is 10mcm lower than yesterday, resulting in stable-to-bearish movement on the rest of the near-curve. However, prices at the back of the curve continue to take direction from stronger coal and oil markets. Improved temperatures are expected tomorrow but wind levels are forecast to fall, resulting in small gains at the front of the power curve. Oil prices jumped significantly yesterday afternoon but have settled down this morning, helping far-curve contracts to stabilise despite bullish movement on the coal market.

For a breakdown of the current generation mix visit our Power Generation Insights page.

Brent Summary

Brent 1st-nearby prices displayed a surprise rebound yesterday to climb back above $64.5/b. The latest EIA report showed that US crude stocks did not rise by as much as initially anticipated and this helped to provide support to prices.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity recorded minor gains – closing at 46.17ppt and £46.06/MWh, respectively.

Today’s prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our ‘current UK energy price' page.

Click graph to enlarge

energy price graph - 15-02-2018

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