19th January 2018 | Posted by: Daniel Birkett | Market Analysis

Gas Power
Market Close Market Close
An outage in Norway and a drop in flows via the BBL pipeline tightened the UK system yesterday and limited any downward movement at the front of the curve. Bearish pressure was provided by the expected drop in LDZ demand next week and far-curve prices stabilised with little support provided by fuel markets. Weather forecasts are almost unchanged this morning with milder weather expected next week, limiting upward movement at the front of the curve. However, most prices have moved higher because of a short system as an outage in Norway continues to restrict flows via the Vesterled pipeline. Meanwhile, Brent has decreased slightly, providing some bearish pressure at the back of the curve.
Market Open Market Open
Wind generation was expected to hold a similar level today of close to 9GW, helping the prompt shed from its price yesterday. A mild weather forecast for the rest of January also contributed to losses across the rest of the near-curve, while weaker coal and oil, combined with a stronger Pound pressured down contracts on the far-curve. Day-Ahead power displays a strong gain this morning as wind levels are expected to fall significantly tomorrow, increasing the nation’s reliance on gas-fired power. A milder weather outlook continues to restrict bullish movement further along the near curve, while a rebound in coal has offered support to contracts on the far-curve.

For a breakdown of the current generation mix visit our Power Generation Insights page.

Brent Summary

Brent has moved down this morning as production levels in the US are expected to rise, with yesterday’s EIA report showing an increase in drilling throughout January, undermining OPEC production cuts.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity increased – closing at 48.17ppt and £47.43/MWh, respectively.

Today’s prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our ‘current UK energy price' page.

Click graph to enlarge

energy price graph - 19-01-2018

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