14th October 2016 | Posted by: Daniel Birkett | Market Analysis

Gas Power
Market Close Market Close
Gas prices increased on Thursday despite stable fundamentals, with a lack of deliveries from Qatar this month resulting in weak LNG send-outs. Temperatures are also forecast to turn colder next week which helped to support prices at the front of the curve. Meanwhile, increases on the coal and oil markets helped towards gains on the far-curve. Rises on the coal, gas and oil markets transferred to the power curve on Thursday afternoon with upward movement observed across the curve. Low wind generation should also lead to an increased reliance on expensive gas-fired generation, with colder weather also expected over the coming weeks.
Market Open Market Open
Temperatures have been revised higher for the start of next week and are expected to rise above the seasonal norm, helping to limit gains on the prompt. However, cold weather is still expected to hit the UK in the second half of October and continues to offer support, with low LNG supply still an on-going factor. Gas-fired power generation could also increase over the weekend due to low wind levels, while Brent and coal contracts have strengthened in a bullish opening to the session. Power contracts at the front of the curve have tracked the movement of strengthening gas and recorded gains this morning. Wind generation is also set to remain low over the next two weeks and cold temperatures are expected, which should lead to a rise in consumption. Further out, strong increases for coal and oil offered additional support and the current trend for power prices remains bullish.

Brent Summary

Brent 1st nearby prices displayed a technical rebound yesterday and trade close to $52.5/b this morning. Despite this increase, overall sentiment is bearish with the latest EIA report showing a rise in commercial crude oil stocks and with output levels in the US forecast to rise next year.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity increased - closing at 45.73ppt and £47.05/MWh, respectively.

Today's prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our 'current UK energy price' page.

Click graph to enlarge

energy price graph - 14-10-2016

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