29th March 2016 | Posted by: Daniel Birkett | Market Analysis

Gas Power
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The gas market was closed yesterday and Friday due to the Easter holidays but the general sentiment remained bearish. An upward revision in the UK weather forecast for later in the week points to above average temperatures which should help reduce demand. However, Norwegian and Russian gas flows could decrease in the coming days, offering some support. Power contracts displayed mixed changes last Thursday with downward movement more evident on the near-curve. A drop in industrial demand over the Easter holidays helped the prompt shed from its price, with milder weather also weighing on consumption levels. Temperatures for April are forecast to be around the seasonal norm which restricted some downward movement on the curve.
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Gas demand in the UK is expected to fall by 18mcm tomorrow as exports to Belgium are set to decrease, while overall supply levels remain comfortable. Milder weather should weigh on demand levels further in the coming days and the LNG outlook is healthy, with three deliveries expected to arrive in the UK this week. As a result, losses have been observed across the gas curve with weaker Brent also a factor. Movement on the power curve varies this morning with demand levels expected to fall later in the week on the back of milder weather, before returning to average levels in April. Elsewhere, wind generation levels are currently strong and this should continue tomorrow, resulting in a loss on the prompt. Further out, the sentiment is stable-to-bearish with weaker coal and oil pressuring down some contracts.

Brent Summary

Brent 1st-nearby prices dropped below $40/b overnight and currently trade just above $39.7/b, with little to support the markets at present; the main focus continues to be the arranged meeting in Doha next month.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity decreased - closing at 30.47ppt and £35.04/MWh, respectively.

Today's prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our 'current UK energy price' page.

Click graph to enlarge

energy price graph - 29-03-2016