1st March 2018 | Posted by: Daniel Birkett | Market Analysis

Gas Power
Market Close Market Close
Gas prices posted strong gains yesterday due to freezing temperatures which have tightened systems across Europe. Numerous outages have also occurred, providing further support, with some contracts in the UK almost doubling in price. However, movement at the back of the curve was bearish due to weakening coal and oil markets. Power contracts were pushed higher by their gas counterparts, on the back of limited supply levels and very high demand caused by freezing weather across the UK. Renewable generation was expected to remain strong, providing resistance on the prompt, while falling coal and a strong decrease in Brent capped any gains at the back of the curve.
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Extremely cold weather continues to cause volatility, with the National Grid issuing a Gas Deficit Supply warning this morning, read more here. Day-Ahead gas recorded a huge gain of over 30ppt, although movement along the rest of the curve is quite subdued with weaker fuel markets a factor. Stronger gas prices and high heating demand continues to dictate the front of the power curve, with the prompt moving higher despite healthy renewables. Front month is unchanged as temperatures are expected to turn milder towards the end of next week, while weaker coal and oil have contributed to some losses at the back of the curve.

For a breakdown of the current generation mix visit our Power Generation Insights page.

Brent Summary

Oil prices recorded a strong loss following the Brent contract expiration, a bearish EIA stocks report, a weaker Dollar and high compliance to OPEC production cuts; Brent fell by over $3/b to trade at $63.3/b this morning.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for commercial gas was unchanged, while commercial electricity decreased slightly – closing at 46.45ppt and £46.33/MWh, respectively.

Today’s prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our ‘current UK energy price' page.

Click graph to enlarge

energy price graph - 01-03-2018

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