1st July 2016 | Posted by: Daniel Birkett | Market Analysis

Gas Power
Market Close Market Close
Gas prices moved down on Thursday on the back of weakening oil prices, with a stable supply outlook also limiting any upward movement. Norwegian imports into the UK fell and exports to Belgium increased following the end of maintenance at the UK interconnector, tightening European gas systems. This drop in supply was offset by a healthy LNG outlook, with 5 deliveries expected to arrive in the UK over the next fortnight. Near-curve power contracts ended Thursday's session at a discount with direction coming from weakening gas and oil, as well as healthy fundamentals. Wind generation is set to remain high over the coming days, while cooler temperatures should weigh on residential consumption which helped the prompt to move down.
Market Open Market Open
Overall fundamentals have improved this morning which could result in some downward movement on the gas curve despite numerous gains this morning. In terms of supply, LNG send-outs from South Hook have doubled, resulting in a long UK gas system despite increased exports to Belgium. Norwegian supply have also improved by around 20mcm, although cooler temperatures could result in higher demand over the weekend. Power contracts have taken direction from the bearish sentiment of the gas curve and posted losses this morning. A drop in oil prices has also contributed to the downward movement on the far-curve, although seasonal contracts have increased as a result of higher APi2 coal prices and a stronger US Dollar. Elsewhere, wind generation is expected to maintain current levels over the weekend, while temperatures will stay below the seasonal norm.

Brent Summary

Brent 1st-nearby prices have decreased this morning to around $49.9/b as traders indulged in profit taking following sizeable gains during Q2-2016. However, the losses were slightly restricted by a drop in US crude oil output.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity increased - closing at 41.33ppt and £42.81/MWh, respectively.

Today's prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our 'current UK energy price' page.

Click graph to enlarge

energy price graph - 01-07-2016