2nd February 2018 | Posted by: Daniel Birkett | Market Analysis

Gas Power
Market Close Market Close
The short-term weather forecast points to colder temperatures over the weekend and the start of next week which helped towards gains at the front of the gas curve on Thursday. Brent and coal markets stabilised somewhat but the majority of far-curve prices still climbed higher. Fundamentals were largely unchanged from Wednesday as wind power remained strong, however, a significant drop was expected today and this helped the prompt strengthen. The cold weather forecast lifted the rest of the near-curve, while the back of the curve showed minimal movement.
Market Open Market Open
The expected drop in temperatures next week continue to support gas contracts on the near-curve this morning. The system is just 2mcm long following a 16mcm increase in demand levels due to a drop in wind generation. However, imports via the IUK pipeline are 10mcm higher, limiting some of the gains. Further out, a rise in oil prices has provided support to some contracts. Power prices have mimicked changes on the gas curve, with a drop in wind levels contributing to higher gas-fired power generation. Below average temperatures are also forecast for the coming days which will lift heating demand. Meanwhile, the far-curve was dictated by a rebound on coal and oil markets.

For a breakdown of the current generation mix visit our Power Generation Insights page.

Brent Summary

Brent 1st-nearby prices have rose back to around $69.8/b this morning as OPEC have reaffirmed their commitment to production cuts, offsetting the effects of rising US stocks.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity increased – closing at 46.28ppt and £46.01/MWh, respectively.

Today’s prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our ‘current UK energy price' page.

Click graph to enlarge

energy price graph - 02-02-2018

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