3rd February 2016 | Posted by: Daniel Birkett | Market Analysis

Gas Power
Market Close Market Close
Falling oil continued to weigh on gas contracts across the curve on Tuesday, although a small rebound occurred in the afternoon. An 8mcm rise in demand levels restricted some of the losses on the near-curve despite a long gas system and a mild weather forecast for later in the week. Day-Ahead power climbed higher yesterday due to an expected drop in temperatures today; resulting in a £1.70/MWh loss. Contracts further along the curve displayed a price-drop and followed the movement of their gas counterparts, dictated by a falling oil market.
Market Open Market Open
Gas demand has increased further this morning due to colder temperatures across Europe but the overall sentiment remains bearish due to a healthier supply outlook for tomorrow. Temperatures are expected to revert back above the seasonal norm tomorrow and the gas system remains oversupplied. Most contracts on the curve have recorded a loss as the price of Brent has weakened once again. A milder weather forecast and the subsequent drop in demand that goes with it has offset an expected decrease in wind generation, resulting in a loss for the prompt. Peak wind production in the UK is set to fall from 4.6GW to 2.1GW tomorrow but overall supply levels remain comfortable. Meanwhile, stronger coal prices resulted in some upward movement further along the curve.

Brent Summary

Brent 1st-nearby prices moved down once again yesterday, falling by $3.5/b since Friday's close. Crude oil stocks have reached a record high and production cuts are unlikely which has contributed to the current bearish trend.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity decreased - closing at 31.13ppt and £35.10/MWh, respectively.

Today's prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our 'current UK energy price' page.

Click graph to enlarge

energy price graph - 03-02-2016