3rd July 2017 | Posted by: Daniel Birkett | Market Analysis

Gas Power
Market Close Market Close
Gas prices displayed losses on Friday afternoon following a rise in Norwegian flows, resulting in an oversupplied system. The LNG outlook for this week is also healthy, further weighing on near-curve prices. Meanwhile, movement on the coal and oil markets was minimal, providing little support to the far-curve. A stronger wind generation forecast for the weekend and today helped the prompt shed from its price on Friday, with healthy solar production also expected. An increase in temperatures could lead to higher cooling demand this week but the overall sentiment across the curve was bearish.
Market Open Market Open
The UK gas system has opened short this morning as exports to Belgium have increased, contributing to gains on the near-curve. Upward movement can also be seen on the far-curve as Brent prices continue to strengthen. Elsewhere, wind levels are forecast to remain quite low across Europe which could lead to a rise in CCGT generation, although warmer weather should weigh on residential demand. A warmer weather outlook should see higher demand for cooling this week, while a drop in wind levels could see an increased reliance on gas-fired generation. Upward movement can be seen at the front of the curve as a result of this stronger demand outlook, with the rest of the curve finding support by rising gas and oil markets.

For a breakdown of the current generation mix visit our Power Generation Insights page.

Brent Summary

Bullish movement continues this morning with the Baker Hughes rig count displaying a decrease for the first time in 23 weeks. Brent currently trades above $49/b, showing a 10% rise since hitting a 9-month low on the 21st of June.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity increased – closing at 41.98ppt and £43.13/MWh, respectively.

Today’s prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our ‘current UK energy price' page.

Click graph to enlarge

energy price graph - 03-07-2017

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