4th May 2016 | Posted by: Daniel Birkett | Market Analysis

Gas Power
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A decrease in UK gas demand and a drop in oil prices contributed to losses across the gas curve on Tuesday, with the downward movement more visible on the near-curve. Demand levels fell by 40mcm compared to Friday as milder weather led to lower residential consumption, with levels expected to fall further later in the week. Meanwhile, an outage at the Rough storage facility limited storage injections, with excess flows exported to Belgium; restricting some of the losses. Power contracts followed their falling gas counterparts with weaker consumption levels driving the market. A warm weather forecast helped to weigh on the Day-Ahead contract, while falling Brent helped far-curve contracts close at a discount. Elsewhere, European generation levels remained comfortable with no major constraints currently affecting capacities.
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Another drop in demand is expected tomorrow as temperatures are set to rise further, helping the prompt to record a sizeable loss. The UK gas system has also opened long this morning as overall gas flows are healthy, applying downward pressure on the near-curve. Further out, Brent prices are generally stable this morning and have had little effect on gas contracts. The power curve displays very little movement this morning with numerous contracts opening unchanged, minimal movement on gas and oil contracts was the main factor behind today's flat opening. A warm weather forecast for the rest of the week and over the weekend has restricted any upward movement on the near-curve as consumption will remain low.

Brent Summary

Brent 1st-nearby prices recorded another drop overnight but have held their price this morning, trading just below $45/b. The main market driver is increased output levels in the Middle East which will further add to oversupply concerns.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for commercial gas increased, while commercial electricity posted a small loss - closing at 33.65ppt and £36.88/MWh, respectively.

Today's prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our 'current UK energy price' page.

Click graph to enlarge

energy price graph - 04-05-2016