7th February 2018 | Posted by: Daniel Birkett | Market Analysis

Gas Power
Market Close Market Close
The system tightened yesterday due to cold temperatures, resulting in bullish movement across the near-curve. Gains were also visible on the far-curve but the upward movement was capped by falling coal and oil markets. However, coal prices could increase significantly if Colombian workers go on strike due to a wage dispute. Power prices moved higher on Tuesday as heating demand was higher and wind generation remained weak, with no improvement expected today. Rising gas prices also supported their power counterparts, although losses on coal and oil markets provided some resistance at the back of the curve.
Market Open Market Open
The UK gas system is 14.4mcm long this morning although demand levels remain above the seasonal norm due to freezing temperatures overnight. Weather forecasts have been revised and below average temperatures are set to continue until the 11th of February. This stronger demand outlook has supported near-curve prices, while stable Brent and a weaker Pound has helped contracts at the back of the curve move higher. The UK’s current cold stint is forecast to last until Monday, resulting in stronger heating demand for longer than initially expected; this has helped prompt power contracts add to their price. Further out, prices continue to take direction from the oil market which has recovered slightly, while the Euro has also strengthened against the Pound, resulting in gains.

For a breakdown of the current generation mix visit our Power Generation Insights page.

Brent Summary

Brent has recovered slightly following strong losses in previous sessions but still remains close to $67/b. The latest API figures provided some support but a rebound on the overall global market is the cause for today’s increase.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity increased – closing at 46.35ppt and £45.95/MWh, respectively.

Today’s prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our ‘current UK energy price' page.

Click graph to enlarge

energy price graph - 07-02-2018

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