9th February 2018 | Posted by: Daniel Birkett | Market Analysis

Gas Power
Market Close Market Close
Gas prices moved down on Thursday with direction provided by an expected rise in temperatures next week which will reduce residential demand. Healthy wind levels are also forecast, resulting in lower gas-fired power demand which provided further downward pressure. Meanwhile, oil prices displayed a strong decline which transferred to contracts at the back of the curve. Power prices followed their gas counterparts yesterday and moved down with milder weather, improved wind levels and healthier gas supply applying bearish pressure at the front of the curve. Further out, prices continued to take direction from a falling oil market.
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The system is 5mcm short despite a drop in demand, although prices have moved down on the back of next week’s milder weather forecast. Gains caused by the Forties pipeline outage on Wednesday have been erased, while the far-curve is bearish due to weakening coal and oil markets. Temperatures are expected to revert back to the seasonal norm next week and wind generation is set to remain comfortable, resulting in losses at the front of the power curve this morning. The Pound has recovered slightly against the Euro, while coal and oil markets display strong losses, weighing on far-curve contracts.

For a breakdown of the current generation mix visit our Power Generation Insights page.

Brent Summary

Brent continues to display a strong downward trend and now trades at $64.5/b, high US production remains a key factor behind any losses, while Iran has announced that it could increase output over the next two years, further undermining OPEC efforts.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity decreased – closing at 45.30ppt and £45.24/MWh, respectively.

Today’s prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our ‘current UK energy price' page.

Click graph to enlarge

energy price graph - 09-02-2018

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