9th March 2018 | Posted by: Daniel Birkett | Market Analysis

Gas Power
Market Close Market Close
Near-curve gas prices increased on Thursday with direction coming from a colder weather outlook for the end of the month and the start of April. Storage levels are also low which has provided additional support, while LNG supply is limited by outages in Africa. Meanwhile, an issue in Norway has reduced flows to the UK today, supporting the prompt, but bullish movement at the back of the curve was capped by weaker fuel markets. A weaker wind forecast for today contributed to upward movement on the prompt yesterday, while the expected drop in temperatures later in the month helped the rest of the near-curve move higher. Further out, movement was minimal as falling coal and oil markets offset any bullish pressure.
Market Open Market Open
Colder weather forecasts continue to provide support at the front of the curve this morning, with low storage levels caused by the recent cold snap also a factor. The system is close to balance as demand levels remain above the seasonal norm due to an increase in CCGT demand. On the far-curve, any gains have been limited decreasing coal and oil prices. Wind levels are expected to remain low at the start of next week and the prompt has strengthened further as a result, although a milder weather outlook offered resistance. Solar power is also quite weak, increasing the nation’s reliance on more expensive gas-fired generation. Upward movement further along the curve is minimal with bearish pressure provided by weakening Brent and coal.

For a breakdown of the current generation mix visit our Power Generation Insights page.

Brent Summary

Brent 1st-nearby prices have declined further and trade at $64/b this morning with the latest EIA report still acting as the main market driver which displayed higher US stocks and production levels than expected.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity increased – closing at 49.30ppt and £48.84/MWh, respectively.

Today’s prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our ‘current UK energy price' page.

Click graph to enlarge

energy price graph - 09-03-2018

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