|Milder weather helped to weigh on near-curve gas prices on Friday, with healthy LNG send-outs contributing to a slightly oversupplied system. Temperatures could rise to 5°C above the seasonal norm in some parts of Europe, resulting in comfortable systems. Meanwhile, coal and oil remained bullish, restricting downward movement at the back of the curve.
|The prompt moved higher on Friday as weak wind generation was forecast for today, although improved solar power limited the gain. However, the rest of the near-curve moved down on the back of a warmer weather forecast for this week. Further out, movement was generally stable with resistance provided by stronger fuel markets.
|Temperatures are forecast to rise in the coming days which will weigh on residential demand, although low wind levels have increased CCGT demand. This sharp rise in gas-fired power has pushed overall demand to 12mcm above the seasonal norm, while outages in Norway have seen flows drop by 10mcm. This weaker supply/ demand picture has left the system 16mcm short, resulting in gains across the near-curve, while bullish oil and coal markets have supported the back of the curve.
|Wind levels have dropped as expected today, increasing the nation’s reliance on more expensive gas-fired power generation. This, combined with a short gas system has helped near-curve prices move higher. Wind generation is also expected to remain low tomorrow which has helped the prompt to increase. Sentiment on the far-curve is unchanged from Friday with rising coal and oil offering support to prices.
For a breakdown of the current generation mix visit our Power Generation Insights page.
Brent 1st nearby prices have increased with direction coming from the latest EIA report. Support was also provided by another shift in tensions between the US and China, with the situation seemingly calming following comments made by officials from both countries.
1-year forward prices
Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity increased – closing at 46.85ppt and £48.22/MWh, respectively.
Today’s prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our ‘current UK energy price' page.
Click graph to enlarge
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