9th October 2017 | Posted by: Daniel Birkett | Market Analysis

Gas Power
Market Close Market Close
The ongoing outage at the Corrib gas field in Ireland continued to increase UK exports, providing support to the near-curve despite an oversupplied system. Planned maintenance in Norway is also scheduled for tomorrow and Wednesday, adding to the bullish sentiment. Further out, a weakening Pound was offset by a drop in coal prices, resulting in some losses. A warmer weather outlook for the next two weeks resulted in downward movement on the near-curve on Friday. However, losses were limited by an expected reduction in gas supply this week. Further out, decreases on the coal and oil markets helped to stabilise some contracts.
Market Open Market Open
Scheduled maintenance will reduce Norwegian export capacity over the next two days, helping the prompt climb higher this morning. Wind levels are also low, resulting in a jump in CCGT demand, while the Corrib gas field remains offline, further supporting the near-curve. However, temperatures and wind levels are set to improve later in the week which should put an end to the current bullish sentiment. Mild weather is expected in the UK this week but wind generation is low for the time being, resulting in a stronger Day-Ahead contract this morning. The market currently awaits news regarding the French nuclear situation as output from the country could be severely affected by safety checks. Meanwhile, coal prices could become more volatile as a one-week national holiday in China is over.

For a breakdown of the current generation mix visit our Power Generation Insights page.

Brent Summary

Brent 1st-nearby prices decreased on Friday, erasing Thursday’s gains but the outlook for today is stable-to-bullish. Brent currently trades below $55.5/b but there are fears that Donald Trump could decertify the Iranian nuclear deal which would have a significant impact in the Middle East and trigger upward movement on the oil market.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity decreased – closing at 45.77ppt and £45.01/MWh, respectively.

Today’s prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our ‘current UK energy price' page.

Click graph to enlarge

energy price graph - 09-10-2017

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