11th September 2019 | Posted by: Daniel Birkett | Market Analysis

Gas Power
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Gas prices sky rocketed yesterday due to concerns regarding French nuclear availability which could result in very high gas demand over the winter months. On top of this, further production cuts are expected at the Groningen field in the Netherlands which will also impact European gas availability. There is also a possibility that Russian flows into Europe could be cut in the near future as Gazprom has lost its 3rd party exemption. Power prices were pushed higher by a bullish gas market during Tuesday’s session, with supply fears in Europe causing traders to cover their short positions. Safety concerns regarding the welding on French nuclear reactors was the main market driver, with further support provided by stronger coal, oil and carbon.
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The UK gas system is oversupplied this morning as strong wind levels have led to a sharp drop in gas-fired power demand. As well as this, Norwegian flows have ramped up and Russian supply into Europe is higher which has reduced imports. Despite this healthy supply picture, gas prices continue to move higher due to yesterday’s news regarding French nuclear issues, Dutch production cuts and concerns at Gazprom, in addition to rising coal and oil. The market remains extremely bullish this morning with traders frantically trying to cover themselves following yesterday’s developments in France. Power continues to be pushed higher by the gas market, with a weaker wind forecast for tomorrow offering support to the prompt. Further out, increases on coal and carbon markets offer additional strength to contracts.

For a breakdown of the current generation mix visit our Power Generation Insights page.

Brent Summary

Brent 1st-nearby prices have softened slightly this morning but overall context remains supportive following Saudi Arabia’s pledge to work with other countries to balance the market.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity increased – closing at 49.14ppt and £55.15/MWh, respectively.

Today’s prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our ‘current UK energy price' page.

Click graph to enlarge

energy price graph - 11-09-2019

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