13th February 2017 | Posted by: Daniel Birkett | Market Analysis

Gas Power
Market Close Market Close
Gas contracts moved down on Friday as the second half of February is expected to be mild, with a significant drop in demand expected today helping the prompt record a loss. Outages at the Rough and Bergermeer storage facilities failed to offer much support, although an increase in Brent helped to limit downward movement on the far-curve. A weak wind generation forecast for this week offered some support to power contracts on Friday, although the expected rise in temperatures continued to be the main market driver. Falling gas contracts helped to weigh on their power counterparts, although Brent displayed gains and offered resistance at the back of the curve.
Market Open Market Open
Gas demand has decreased this morning as expected which has resulted in further losses at the front of the curve; residential demand is expected to be 30mcm lower than Friday’s levels. However, an expected drop in wind power should lead to a rise in CCGT generation and Norwegian flows to Europe have dropped by 330mcm. Meanwhile, the UK gas system is slightly long and there is little support provided by oil and coal markets, resulting in a stable outlook. Power contracts have inched higher this morning with the stronger gains displayed at the front of the curve. A unit at the Eggborough power plant is currently offline for commercial reasons which has helped some contracts to rally higher, although some bearish sentiment was provided by a drop in coal prices.

Brent Summary

Brent 1st-nearby prices climbed higher towards the end of last week but have dropped off slightly this morning to trade just below $56.4/b. Prices remain quite range-bound as a rising US rig count has been offset by strong OPEC compliance in terms of production cuts.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity increased – closing at 47.90ppt and £46.49/MWh, respectively.

Today’s prices can also be found in an easy to read table on or ‘current UK energy price' page.

Click graph to enlarge

energy price graph - 13-02-2017

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