13th March 2018 | Posted by: Daniel Birkett | Market Analysis

Gas Power
Market Close Market Close
Gas prices displayed very strong gains at the start of the session but moved down in the afternoon. However, the bearish shift was short-lived as a downward revision in temperatures for next week contributed to another significant rebound. The expected surge in demand has caused concerns regarding a potential gas shortage due to low storage levels. Meanwhile, decreases on oil and coal markets limited some gains at the back of the curve. The power curve once again tracked the movement of the gas market and prices ended the session at a premium. Temperatures are expected to be well below the seasonal norm at the start of next week, lifting demand levels and potentially causing a gas supply shortage. Further out, the overall trend was bullish but upward movement was capped by weaker Brent and coal prices.
Market Open Market Open
The system is 9.3mcm long despite demand levels sitting 32mcm above the seasonal norm, as a result, prices at the front of the gas curve have recorded substantial losses. In terms of supply, Langeled output is at capacity, while BBL flows have increased by 26mcm. Current forecasts suggest that temperatures could improve in the middle of next week, while coal has decreased strongly, adding to the bearish sentiment. Sizeable losses can be observed across the power curve this morning, with the prompt in particular showing a strong downward correction due to a healthier wind and mild weather forecast for tomorrow, combined with comfortable gas supply. Far-curve contracts have weakened with the help of falling coal, while oil markets are bearish due to rising production levels in the US.

For a breakdown of the current generation mix visit our Power Generation Insights page.

Brent Summary

Brent has decreased slightly this morning and trades around $65/b – bearish pressure was provided by an updated forecast released by the EIA in regards to US production levels, with a further rise expected.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity decreased – closing at 49.70ppt and £48.82/MWh, respectively.

Today’s prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our ‘current UK energy price' page.

Click graph to enlarge

energy price graph - 13-03-2018

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