14th February 2018 | Posted by: Daniel Birkett | Market Analysis

Gas Power
Market Close Market Close
Below average temperatures are expected from next week until the end of February, fuelling bullish movement across the near gas curve yesterday. An outage at the Entry Segal pipeline also provided support as Norwegian exports will be restricted for the next 4-6 days. Meanwhile, strengthening coal markets pushed contracts at the back of the curve higher. Power prices followed gas yesterday, with the cold weather outlook contributing to gains across the near-curve. A healthy wind generation forecast for today helped to curb upward movement on the prompt, while the far-curve tracked the bullish coal market, ignoring weak oil prices.
Market Open Market Open
Day-Ahead gas has opened lower this morning as mild weather is expected tomorrow and the system is 15mcm long. However, cold weather is set to return over the weekend and could lift demand levels over the next fortnight, helping front-month retain yesterday’s gains. Brent remains bearish but rising coal continues to offset its effects on the far-curve. Wind levels are expected to remain healthy tomorrow and temperatures will be relatively mild, resulting a loss on the prompt this morning. The rest of the near curve also displayed small losses but were insignificant compared to yesterday’s strong gains. Further out, bullish coal has helped contracts hold their price, with a rebound in oil also a factor.

For a breakdown of the current generation mix visit our Power Generation Insights page.

Brent Summary

Brent fell towards $61.7/b yesterday but has rebounded back above $62.7/b this morning. Despite this recovery, the overall outlook remains bearish with high US production, a weaker Dollar and an improved economic outlook the main market drivers.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity decreased – closing at 46.07ppt and £46.04/MWh, respectively.

Today’s prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our ‘current UK energy price' page.

Click graph to enlarge

energy price graph - 14-02-2018

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