14th March 2018 | Posted by: Daniel Birkett | Market Analysis

Gas Power
Market Close Market Close
Near-curve gas prices decreased on Tuesday but were yet to completely erase the strong gains recorded on Monday. Cold temperatures are expected at the start of next week but milder weather is forecast to return before the month is out. A drop in storage withdrawals has tightened supply but flows in general were healthy. Meanwhile, a drop in oil prices provided additional bearish pressure at the back of the curve. Power prices moved down yesterday, tracking the movement of gas, with the prompt recording a strong loss on the back of a much improved wind generation forecast for today. Temperatures for the start of April were also revised higher, while losses on coal and oil markets weighed on the rest of the curve.
Market Open Market Open
The system is over 13mcm long this morning despite unseasonably high LDZ demand. Freezing weather is expected over the weekend but another revision shows that milder temperatures could return quicker than expected. As a result, gas prices have opened at a discount, with improved wind levels reducing CCGT demand, while a bearish oil market has contributed to more losses at the back of the curve. A milder forecast for next week has helped to pressure down near-curve power contracts this morning, with the prompt decreasing by £2/MWh as wind generation is expected to maintain current levels. Further out, coal prices have rebounded but Brent displays another loss, restricting any bullish movement.

For a breakdown of the current generation mix visit our Power Generation Insights page.

Brent Summary

Brent prices displayed slight fluctuations yesterday but have recorded a small loss since yesterday’s opening to trade around $64.6/b. Traders are now awaiting today’s EIA report.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity decreased – closing at 49.13ppt and £48.50/MWh, respectively.

Today’s prices can also be found in an easy to read table on our ‘current UK energy price' page.

Click graph to enlarge

energy price graph - 14-03-2018

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